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fiscal action that will push the economy back into recession. that was one of the risks that the fiscal cliff posed. the challenge is to achieve long run sustainability without unduly hampering the recovery which we have. the deal that was struck together with the previous work in 2011 that involved some spending cuts made some progress in both of these goals. sustainability still abil over the decade we have seen improvement in the debt to gdp ratio. there's more work to be done, but some progress there. and in the short run, the fiscal cliff deal on new year's eliminated a good bit of the restrictive components of the fiscal policy that would have had such adverse effects. not completely, but at least a good start. there was a bit of progress on both of these goals, very importantly. i hasten to say that we're not out of the woods, because we are approaching a number of other physical and critical watershed's coming up. we've got the funding of the government, the so-called sequestered, which is a set of automatic spending cuts that were delayed by two months as part of the fiscal cli
irreparable damage to the u.s. economy. >>> and jump t to the top of the ftse 100 after third quarter revenue beat the forecast, burberry had earnings higher than expected. >>> all right. sorted out my mike issues. "worldwide exchange" is slightly different today because we're analyzing the first german gdp numbers. >> and i come to the u.s. where it's all annualized and we stick to the european data and it's quarter on quarter. given the context, we're still working through what all that means. >> exports in november, down 94.1 billion is where we essentially went. 98.4 billion was the october numbers. so exports in november driving down. and that gdp number is worth pulling out. exports for the year, up 4.1%. as far as production is concerned, it was up 2% in november. but the forecast were for it to rise up 1%. it was a very weak october, as well. it was this production and that production number. when that came out, it essentially made people put a pretty fourth quarter in the whole, kelly. what we're trying to do is derive what the annual figure was. >> exactly. and before we get to that
or the largest economy in the world. we need to get to the point of dealing with the biggest deficit in the country, the jobs deficit. to me, this bill simply put a band-aid on the problem. it did do something the president wanted to do, committed to do. he delivered on the promise to try to help protect the middle- class class. my theory is that in the next three political maneuvers that we are going to see coming up in congress, that people will start attacking the middle class. i believe this was our best opportunity to really take care long-term of the issues that we need to address to a balanced approach. >> to follow-up on that, you you voted early. you are not just waiting to see if it was going to pass and then vote no. the idea that obama kind of thatsome leverage theire, you wanted to see him fail, that he has to go back to the leverage -- that he does not have the leverage -- >> after the republicans walked away from the negotiations and tried the plan b by speaker boehner, it became clear, even after they tried to amend the senate yield that they could not do so dosh and
will probably not get much applause today, but he will restore the american economy, secure america's place in the world and his own place in history. thank you for watching "memo to the president." if you have an idea for the president, join us in the conversation online on #obamamemo on twitter or you can see our regular show on sundays at 10:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. eastern. thank you for watching. >>> the toughest issues facing america, job, gun, health care, immigration, climate change and more. frankly, can both sides agree on anything? i'll talk to obama's campaign co-chair. >> we want stuff done. we want solutions. we don't need perfection. we need progress. >> we'll talk about his legacy. >> i think he can learn from the past and he's try to do that. >> and what obama needs to do for america. >> he's swinging big. swinging for the fences. >> second-term presidencies have been filled with misspent political capital. >> this is "piers morgan tonight." >>> good evening. america has great expectations for president obama and at the same time the country is divided on issue
's the smallest business on main street or the largest economy in the world. so what we need to do is get to the point of dealing with the biggest deficit this country faces the jobs deficit. and to me this bill simply put a band aid on the problem. it did do something the president wanted to do, committed to do. he delivered on the promise to try to help protect the middle class but my fear is that in these next 3 -- three political maneuvers we're going to see that people will start attacking the middle class and i believe that this was our best opportunity to really take care long term the issues that we need to address to a balanced approach. >> so to follow up, you voted early, i was watching the board. you voted early. you didn't vote to see if it was going to pass and then vote no. was the idea that obama kind of lost some leverage there that you wanted to see it fail because obama now has to go back to the debt ceiling and he doesn't have the benefit of tax cuts looming? >> i knew it was going to pass. after the republicans walked away from the negotiations and then tried to plan
term, given the state of the economy, given the fact that most americans think the country is going in the wrong direction. he's been given that lucky second chance. and he campaigned well. you have to give him that. what are his challenges in the second term? >> the first thing every president has to be careful of in a second term, as margaret alluded to is overreach. there's a period after you win. your first-term policies seem to have been validated, that you look at those results and you think you're all powerful. the famous example in recent history is george w. bush. in 2005, remember he came out and did that press conference and said he had political capital and meant to spend it and the first thing he tried to do was pass a plan to reform social security that was just destroyed by the democrats, and then katrina happened. and his presidency was over by the end of 2005, at least the second term. so, you know, i spent a lot of time reporting on this the last year, talking to white house people, and they were very acutely aware of the dangers hidden in a second term. and i thin
parties are. >> they are going with the american economy and the global economy. closer you get to the fiscal cliff, i think the less likely it is that the u.s. will be funded over and. >> okay, let me ask about tax reform. mutual political last week that a balanced approach to placing the sequester with benefits and revenues should accelerate tax reform, and i believe it's fully possible this year we work on a bipartisan basis. how does that square with the people that say that the tax reform is going to lose out because of scheduling and needing to deal with the debt ceiling and the looming sequester and house republicans concerned that if they do anything on tax reform, that they may leave themselves open to the senate not taking action. therefore, they have taken in on popular vote for no reason. >> first of all we have to solve this debt crisis in terms of sequestration and in terms of the full faith and credit of the u.s. and. we are not going to accomplish tax reform in the next six weeks. so we have a deadline that cannot basically be moved for what we need to do in the
our economy, we can keep the sales tax flat at its current level and cut income taxes on our lower income working families to 1.9% and drop the top rate to 3.5%. this glide path to zero will not cut funding for schools, higher education or essential safety net programs. and for those who come to kansas or stay in kansas because of lower taxes, let me tell you, opportunities abound. an all-time record of more than 15,000 new businesses formed in 2012, a sign of strong economic growth. we are, as you know, the air capital of the world. our aircraft industry is back on the ascent, and southwest airlines is soon to land in wichita. we are the nation's breadbasket and its meat counter and are becoming its dairy section as well. our oil production is hitting a high not seen in more than a decade with billions of dollars of a new vertical and horizontal drilling. we are number one in new wind investment with nearly $3 billion of new investment last year alone and more to come. our rapidly growing animal health sector that stretches from k-state in manhattan to johnson county grabs a 30% o
and the economy. >> it's my pleasure to welcome you here to the brookings institution on a soggy day. it's not too hard to come in from outside on a day like this. this is the fifth growth through innovation forum that we have held at brookings but i'll give you a little background in a minute. it's the third one that we are conducting publicly. the phrase growth through innovation is an important part of the vocabulary to at brookings. we have what we call for institutional priorities under which we try to cluster all of the work that are more than 100 scholars do here. those for priorities are energy and climate, opportunity and well being, managing global change, and growth through innovation. this is i think exactly the right moment to be having today's event. we are in a period of transition in our national leadership here in the capital, of course. we have a new treasury secretary, chief of staff coming in. we'll be having a new commerce secretary, labor secretary, and, of course, the 113th congress is settling in on capitol hill. the forum is going to address the issues of how to reinvigora
is the cruise business these gays? given the weak economy, how are bookings? >> you know, we're feeling pretty good. we're filling our ships every single week with consumers that are having a ball and going off the ships and talking to their friends and neighbors and that's what's driving us gluldz you do interact a lot with consumers, what's your take on consumers? are they willing to spend money to go on a vacation or are stay teastill cautious they don't want to splurge on a big trip? >> i think consumers have had a tough run and now they know what their tax situation is of for 2013 based on what happened in washington recently, and the ones work say i have nigh job, interest rates are low. it's not that bad. i want to take my vacation. >> susie: is business strong enough that you're going to add some jobs and what are your hiring plans? >> every time we launch a new ship, it brings on a lot more employees. we're 20,000 strong at this point. and if you think about there are a couple of thousand that come along with each new ship we're building in the future here. >> susie: kevin, thank you
a way to fuel its rapidly growing economy. about 300 government and corporate officials met in the capital and talked about the advantages and challenges of introducing nuclear power plants. malaysian and indonesian officials say power remains the main option for growing economies with high energy demands and say this is in spite of strong public opposition after the fukushima disaster. they both guarantee the safety of nuclear energy. the administration is working on transforming the energy policies. the trade minster said the country will export nuclear infrastructure after ensuring that it's safe. >> translator: japan has accumulated technology and human resources related to nuclear power. we would like the chance to put these to use. meeting partners's request and safety will be the major premises of this effort. we want to keep exporting our nuclear power infrastructure. >> japan has been promoting exports of the generation facilities even after the disaster in fukushima. the previous administration led by the democratic party signed pacts with countries such as vietnam
's happening in the political world and the economy which we're in. the situation with the gun violence is very close to home, because i do enjoy -- even though i'm 60, i still go out and hunt and shoot a deer and kill a turkey to eat. host: thank you very much. by the way, the full presentation by the president yesterday, you can certainly watch atlanta good morning, what kind of work do you do? caller: i'm in the mental health field. each level of the patients have had different mental health issues. and i have really been waiting for this issue to come up, because that's what concerns me the most. i have worked with people that have multiple personalities. we have been scared to death. they pick beds up. they have tremendous anger in there. i don't think they get the proper care that they need. and after a while, they're released and that is something that i'm really concerned with. it's not about who is able to get a gun, who is able to have a gun. that's not the issue right here. the issue is that we have to start dealing with people with mental health issues. i have worked in a
the world. china's economy rebounds into the fourth quarter, beating expectations and snapping seven straight quarters of slow growth. >>> the british government says there's no indication that the hostage crisis is over in algeria as the reports emerge that doesz may have been killed in a rescue operation. >>> investors are unnerved by big spending plans in 2013. plus, glencore pushes back its mega merger by weeks as the regulatory commission begin necessary south africa. >>> welcome to the program. i want to bring you some breaking news in terms of energy prices. the iea is out with its latest 2013 oil report. it expects u.s. oil demand to remain flat on the year. but the headline here does appear that the market, according to the iea language here, is tighter than we thought. all of a sudden, the market looks tighter than we thought. that's the main message we're getting from the organization. it says the world forecast to consume about 90.8 million barrels per day in 2013, up by about a quarter of a million since december. despite seeing the u.s. slight to even negative, seen as
? >> still to come on tonight's program. china's economy is not as hot as it used to be. it has the government is scrambling to find a new spark. onstage, the ballet world is known for its beauty and grace. behind-the-scenes today, there has been a brutal force. the artistic director has been seriously injured after someone threw acid in his face. for more on the possible motive, here is our washington correspondent. >> one of the stars. he graces the famous stage. and still a high-profile figure. here he is with the head of the grand reopening of the theater just over a year ago. but last night, he was attacked outside of his apartment block, and and and amassed through asset from the bottle into his face and fled. he received serious burns and was rushed to hospital. doctors had been battling to save his sights. today, a deep sense of shock. >> impossible. how it isderstand possible. >> why was he targeted? one theory put forward by the ballet is that he made enemies in his role of artistic director. >> he is the one that decides so many things and every time a decision is mad
to threaten to wreck the entire economy. that is not how, historically, this has been done. that's not how we're going to do it this time. [ inaudible question ] chuck, what i'm saying to you is that there is no simpler solution, no ready, credible solution other than congress either give me the authority to raise the debt ceiling or exercise the responsibility that they have kept for themselves and raise the debt ceiling. because this is about paying your bills. everybody here understands this. i mean, this is not a complicated concept. you don't go out to dinner and then, you know, eat all you want, and then leave without paying the check. and if you do, you're breaking the law. and congress should think about it the same way the american people do. you don't -- now, if congress wants to have a debate about maybe we shouldn't go out to dinner next time, maybe we should go to a more modest restaurant, that's fine. that's the debate that we should have. but you don't say, in order for me to control my appetites, i'm going to not pay the people who already provided me services. people who alre
and our economy. and finally, reform that recognizes the need for safety and security on our boarder and in our communities. with democrats and republicans recognizing the moral, economic and political imperative to create a 21st century immigration process, the 113th congress marks the best opportunity for broad immigration reform in nearly a decade. but for legislation to pass, it will take leadership. leadership from the administration, from congress and from faith, law enforcement or and business leaders at all levels. in each case the leadership that is needed must be strategic, disciplined and unified. our speakers today are exactly that; streej i disciplined and unified. our unity of purpose comes from the common crisis facing families and businesses in our midst and cuts across professional sectors, geographic regions, political stripes and religious beliefs. our consensus lies in a common belief that all americans prosper when we welcome immigrants and empower them to participate fully in our society. we have a broad, a range of speakers today from these three constituencies
downturn. the problem is the program has not worked well. it is not tied to the condition of the economy. it needs to be fixed. roseanne. -- >> roseanne. >> i am inspired. i want folks to understand they have to engage. they cannot trust those in washington d.c.. we have got to take control in our democracy. i want to talk about the fact this goes back to unemployment. it is a very easy read. it cuts to the chase in terms of facts that there are programs to get through and get 100% employment. do not discount america. take control of america. [applause] >> i forgot to mention, the book is called america's poor and the great recession. ideas about what democrats and republicans can agree on. speaker gingrich. >> thank you for assembling an amazing group and a fascinating evening. i hope everybody found it as intriguing as i did. it is clear our institutions and poverty -- institutions are not working. there is a need to rethink from the ground up and use all of the various technologies. then have a conference at the end and then give a major speak. i think we do not have the solutions in
to revive the struggling economy. their economy has been hit by western sanctions over its nuclear program. president ahmadinejad. >> it is an election year. ahmadinejad used most of his time in parliament to defend his government post policies and to talk about how because of his government the country has advanced in just about every sector over the past eight years. but that is not what people wanted to hear. it wanted to hear about the economy and what he plans to do to fix it. in the past eight years, but prices have jumped on just about everything, but the value of the currency has dropped about 70%. the president blames international sanctions against iran's central bank and oil- based economy. he said sanctions are putting pressure on the people and that's what the enemy wants. >> they are against the constructive plans of the parliament, country, and the nation, but they make other excuses for their actions. they're just against iran pose the advancement and impairment. prezioso took shots at his critics and the wallpaper. he said part of the problem with the economy is that the w
second performance? >> yes. >> slowing down but not stalling, can beijing deliver a goldilocks economy? not too hot, not too cold. and jimmy robertson is here with our business news. >> we will have the latest on the dreamliner investigation and the leaking battery that has grounded boeing's entire dreamliner fleet. >> is 12 noon in london, 7:00 a.m. in washington d.c. -- washington, d.c., and 1:00 a.m. in algeria where dozens of hostages held by al qaeda militants remain mired in confusion. the crisis is being played out in and around the sprawling gas production facility seen here in a satellite image, which was attacked by gunmen on wednesday. yesterday, the algerian forces launched an assault, apparently triggered to leave the compound reported and with many british nationals of risk, the prime minister david cameron has offered his support to the algerian government collects from the outset i have -- >> from the outset i have said we will stand against these terrifying force is, but i also stand for the support of hostages. i offered intelligence support including hostage negotiat
to do is have that take place when the republican position on the debt takes the economy hostage. that is off the table. i think the president is smart to be firm and clear on that. next time it would be democrats if we had a republican president. ashley: would you agree, i know it is out of your area, but the senate has not passed a budget in four years now. would you agree with republicans that it is not the way to go and i could, in fact, be breaking the law without i do agree with them. we actually have not passed the budget. i am with them on this concern about our inability to actually do the basic work that a legislature must do. ashley: i know bernanke, timothy geithner, rating agencies and many more states what is the point of a debt ceiling? we routinely raise it anyway. what is the purpose? >> there is no purpose. the debt ceiling has become a device for fiscal irresponsibility. republicans and democrats both dated. senator obama voted against the debt ceiling increase. if we have this credit downgrade, and we had a credit downgrade, as you know, last august. we have t
of rules that have been established that are impossible to meet without doing severe damage to the economy. we're not going to put ourselves in a position where, in order to pay for the spending we have already incurred, where the two options are we were way to either profoundly hurt the economy, hurt seniors, hurt kids trying to go to college or we will blow up the economy. we will not do that. not whatever congress does. they will have to send me something that is sensible. we should not be doing this in a one-three month time when. why should we do that? where the united states of america. we cannot manage our affairs in such a way that we pay our bills and provide certainty in terms of how we pay our bills? look. i do not think anyone would consider my position on reasonable. major, i am happy to have a conversation about how we reduce our deficits. i'm not going to have a monthly or every three months conversation about whether or not we pay our bills. that in and of itself does severe damage. even the threat of default hurts our economy. it hurts our economy as we speak. if we want t
. it was hope. it was change. as this president begins the second term, still a sluggish economy, a polarized political environment, what is the number one challenge as he prepares to address the american people tomorrow? >> well, i still think it is about the hope of the american people, and it is still historic, the second inauguration of this president. but at the same time, obviously, it's going to be working with congress to get the economy moving, moving forward in terms of the big initiatives that the president considers to be so important with regard to immigration reform, implementation of health care reform and making sure that everybody has an opportunity, has a shot at the american dream. >> you mentioned health care reform. you know, republicans would say he did that first last time. he got in our face. that ruined the environment. i know each side blames the other side. i don't want to revisit history, but as the president picks his order this time, republicans have, for example, shown a willingness to work on immigration. should he do immigration before gun control, try to coop
on the gun control laws they haven't been busy working on the economy. they have also been busy demonizing their opponent. take a listen to president obama and his tone today at the press conference on gun control. >> this will be difficult. they will warn of ta tyrannical all-assault on liberty. not because it's true but they want to gin up fear for higher ratings or revenue for themselves. make sure nothing changes whatsoever. >> andrea: all right. so that was a little tasteless at a press conference like that. the economy is hurting. i want to read a couple of headlines on the economy to give you pause while the fun debate is going on. one, ranks of working poor is increasing. workers are raiding the funds to pay the bills. thaw may downgrade the united states. greg, does he not want to deal with this? >> greg: this is a real issue. this speaks to two different cultures in the united states. it's a prescription of xanax. you can have your gun, protection and security. lefties like john stewart paint gun owners as paranoid, the same time on sunday that bob schieffer likens obama's battle
such a strong economy, how can science correct this issue? because without cracking this issue i think having an illiterate society, a scientific illiterate society that affects the market demand for the science to come about. my friends who are not that scientifically aware, they just want a faster phone and want more pictures on facebook and they want a faster internet connection. what they don't want is a unified theory of physics. they don't want more nasa funding or anything about life. how this -- can science alone fix this problem or is it a bigger problem to society itself? >> huge issue. >> science can't fix big problems like that. they can help but i think the best thing scientists can do is make it more interesting in grades before imagination and creativity have crashed. largely -- 90% of the people educated -- that's what i never took a course in english at the university because i feared the deadening effect of the conventional view of literature. i'm glad i did it. i took the examination. >> it worked out pretty well for you. >> exactly. i'm how to write and i have my own idea
's stories. the big one, china aes economy rebounding in the final quarter of to 12. growth to 7.9%, up from 7.4% the appreciate quarter. economists do caution, though, that a chinese recovery is likely to be gradual and weak to drive a global rebound without improvement in the u.s. and europe. also, the fate of dozens of hostages in algeria is still unknown. the algerian military stormed a gas field where the workers were being held. six people if not more are believed to have been killed. >>> a team of experts from boeing and the aviation experts are arriving in japan today. today the japan transportation safety board released a picture of the battery. they said the battery was blackened and carbonized, had a bulge in the middle and weighed 11 pounds less than normal. >>> and the interview everybody is talking about, i stayed up late to watch it, lance armstrong telling oprah that he cheated. >> in all seven of your tour de france victories, did you ever take banned substances or blood dope? >> yes. i view the situation as one big lie that i've repeated a lot of times. i'll spend the rest
on the order of one, 1.5% visual, quite significant drag on economy. at the same time with quite a bit to do to address our long-term sustainability issues. a lot more work to do, let me be very clear about that. but it's going to be a long haul. it's not going to happen overnight. basically because the government budget represents the values and priorities of the public, and decisions been made about what to spend on, what you tax and so on are very difficult and contentious decisions that will take some time to address. >> well, those is to use -- those issues of course are not the specific purdy of the fed, and so why do we shift gears and talk more specifically about some things that the fed is doing and things that the fed might do. perhaps a way to introduce that is to say that the fed of course is keeping interest rates at close to zero since roughly 2008, and it dug pretty deep into its arsenal, more recently in terms of in particular the very massive asset purchases recently launched its third round, which are intended to bring long-term interest rates. can you tell us how well you
cheating? >> still to come on tonight's program. china's economy is not as hot as it used to be. it has the government is scrambling to find a new spark. onstage, the ballet world is known for its beauty and grace. behind-the-scenes today, there has been a brutal force. the artistic director has been seriously injured after someone threw acid in his face. for more on the possible motive, here is our washington correspondent. >> one of the stars. he graces the famous stage. and still a high-profile figure. here he is with the head of the grand reopening of the theater just over a year ago. but last night, he was attacked outside of his apartment block, and and and amassed through asset from the bottle into his face and fled. he received serious burns and was rushed to hospital. doctors had been battling to save his sights. today, a deep sense of shock. >> impossible. how it isderstand possible. >> why was he targeted? one theory put forward by the ballet is that he made enemies in his role of artistic director. >> he is the one that decides so many things and every time a decision is mad
the key message of deep spending cuts, not the message that deep spending cuts will help grow the economy and help create jobs. . . but i did hear no budget, no pay, aimed at democratic senators but then deemed unconstitutional, and an extension of the debt ceiling for about three months which is okay. . it doesn't really go to the heart of the matter. we're going to have a report on this whole story in just a moment. . meanwhile, better news, the stock rally continues up 54 points on the dow, 161 points for the week. get this, a 35% gain in the broad s&p 500. . just since early october 2011. that's right. it's like a stealth rally. it keeps on moving. we'll talk to a leading investment ceo a bit later in the program. . first up, in williamsburg, virginia, today, house republicans have agreed to take up the plan next week to extend the debt ceiling with some conditions. i think that's boring and uninspiring. let's go to the source of this cnbc contributor robert costa. . . i think it's boring, boring, boring. you tell why this is a great. are not attached to this proposal. very three mont
to disaster: how green jobs are damaging america's economy." in it, she subjects the assumption and policies which led to such a faded federal investments as solyndra solar panel manufacture as was that a 123 collector car battery manufacture to a waiting analysis which we of the institute have come to expect from this oxford trained economist who served as chief of staff for the council of economic advisers. sorry. during the administration of president george w. bush. in her book, she helps us understand why the failures of such direct investments in private firms are both significant problems in themselves and cautionary tales for those who would have the government rather than private investors allocate capital. the publication that regulates the disaster caps diane mr. shear as an institute senior fellow, i'll year in which has been prolific and influential. cited by reuters reporters, talk show host, across the country. i think in particular of her many, many contributions to our series called issues 2012, ranging from her analysis demonstrating that even adjusting for the state of the
that if the financial system collapses, the economy is likely to collapse. we took those actions, learned from what happened in the 1930's. during the 1930's, in part because the world was still recovering from world war ii one, there was -- world war i, cooperation among central banks and governments was not very good. your audience may know about the tariff wars and all the things that happened. in a global crisis like this one, it is important to cooperate, according it as much as possible with policy makers around the world. -- cooperate as much as possible with policy makers around the world. on one date, five or six of the world's largest central banks' coordinated on an interest-rate cut. we of work with the central banks to make sure that they have enough dollars to lend for banks that need to use dollars in their transactions. cooperation has been very helpful in the latest episode. one less thing that occurs to me. one reason that the fed and other policymakers did not take more aggressive fundamental action to try to end the great depression was, they were afraid to do anything that was
and never take part in the industrial revolution? >> if your comparative advantage in the world economy is cheap manual labor, that is really precarious. a couple more ticks of moore's law. >> they can do similar things. >> the robots are getting more capable over time and cheaper over time. >> that could be devastating for india and china. >> it can. >> and maybe for us. >> i would rather have our problems than anybody else's problems right now the phenomenon you described is already taking place. you pointed out earlier that we've been shedding manufacturing jobs since about 1980 in this country, while output has gone up. what people don't realize is that the year peak manufacturing employment in china was 1996. they employ a lot fewer people now than they did then to make stuff. their manufacturing output is 77% greater than it was. >> now that you totally depressed us about the future of humanity, is there anything we can still do better than machines and will be able to for the foreseeable future? >> one of the things i learned is never say never. let me tell you what i've never se
the economy, you know, recover as subsequently as well. i think that's what we've been seeing across the region as far as policies are concerned in that they are more responsive and more, i suppose, willing to adapt should be a quick change or shift in consumer sentiment because that will have an impact on growth very quickly in a subsequent month. >> seng wun, australia has had a difficult time determining just where their sector is heading in mining. is it simply now the onus is becoming more clear? >> well, yeah. i think the last six or eight months have given policymakers some degree of confidence in that the picture from europe is stable. the risk is fairly high, there will be more problems ahead, but the determination says policymakers in europe to stay on top of this situation, give confidence to policymaker here and the u.s. is -- and, again, asia, china, it's anchoring growth here and policy is coming up on china is also towards some degree of small, stable growth rather than full speed ahead. so that gets everyone else a little bit more flexibility with regard to fiscal pol
we can go back to the exciting ideas that can lead to the next waves in the economy. the other one is the political environment -- sorry. it can be hard to ignore, but were going to do it. another piece of the political environment, where we had the ability to fix the situation. we know to fix this. we needed a comprehensive dead deal that's big enough to stabilize the debt and we'll remember that. when you're trying to balance the budget. were not very. were not going to be there soon. you have to make sure that that's not faster than the economy and it's on a downward path and the problem is so big or too calm% year to look at every part of the budget. you have to look at defense spending. you have to clearly focused on health care costs, which go faster than the economy. we have to fix our social security system, which makes promises bigger than what we can pay out on the road. we have to raise revenues. we started down the path, but we haven't looked had to do about overhauling tax system, which would you want to raise revenue, you could do in could do in the way bad for the ec
. defaulting on our fiscal obligations would hit the economy harder than that cliff we narrowly avoided and will face again. a report put out by jpmorgan in 2011 exploited the myth going around a few missed payments would be no big deal. they said any delay by the treasury would have ripple effects similar to the aftermath of the lehman brother collapse. not sure that's true but it's serious. this is all caused by the dell ceiling. the u.s. is the only other country other than denmark that uses this tool. that's why ben bernanke has joined critics questioning why the u.s. needs a debt ceiling. >> i think it would be a good thing if we didn't have it. i don't think that's going to happen. i think it's going to be around. but i hope that congress will allow the government to pay its bills. >> ron brownstein is cnn senior political analyst and editorial director at the "national journal." good to see you. the public debt stands at more than $16 trillion. in and of itself it may not be as serious a problem as some make it out to be, especially when it costs the government about 1.8% a year
stronger in the second half. >> for the economy? i think we have to divorce the economy from the market. >> have we been price thatting that out? >> we have to be clear that markets are totally different from the economy. for the markets, we're looking at 2% scenario. scenario a would be similar to 2012 where i think actually the economy doesn't do that well. the first half is difficult. second half is a bit better. we've still got the fed printing 5 billion a month. we could see a rerun of 2012. maybe mid to single high digit returns. >> did you get exposure of citi to bofa here? >> we wouldn't be. we're taking a little bit of money off the table or indeed i think we did. the level of implied volatility makes perfect sense here. >> we'll leave it here for now. thanks very much. over to you, ross. >> kelly, thanks for that. so we are just about an hour and 20 minutes into the trading day here in europe. you can see advancers just about outpace decliners by a ratio of 6 to 4 and we're up near the high point of the session which has dragged us back into prospect on that particular indices
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